By Andrei Skvarsky.
Renaissance Capital argues that this month’s 7.2% decline of the Russian ruble versus the dollar is not much to worry about.
Various currencies have been going down against the dollar, and the ruble has been doing better than, for example, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint or the Czech koruna, which have slid versus the dollar by 9.6%, 9.7% and 7.4% respectively since the start of May, Milena Ivanova-Venturini, deputy head of equity research at the Moscow-based investment firm, points out.
Nor does RenCap expect the weaker ruble to fuel inflation as “the global shock is deflationary by nature”, Ivanova-Venturini says. And, besides, the Russian consumer is more mature and no longer reacts to the ruble’s weakening by “running to the bank” to convert rubles into foreign currency deposits.
The weaker ruble is likely to benefit resource companies, among them Rosneft, Lukoil, Uralkali, Phosagro and Rusal, according to Ivanova-Venturini.